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Why Tyrese Haliburton is my Draft Crush for this Year

I'll start this post off by saying that I have a bias towards tall point guards who can playmake, so I may overhype Tyrese a bit. However, Tyrese will be not just a quality starter, but an all-star in the pros. He's projected to be one of the "safer" players in this draft, and while the implication in this statement that Haliburton has a high floor is correct, the flip side of that implication that his ceiling is lower than his draft contemporaries is false. I will break-down why Haliburton's known skills of playmaking and defending, in addition to his slept-on scoring and shooting abilities, validate his case a top pick in this draft. For these reasons, I would draft Tyrese over guys like James Wiseman or Deni Avdija without a second thought.
Tyrese's strengths are obvious, as anyone who watches his tape recognizes not just his incredibly vision and how his height at 6'5" aids his ability to see over defenders, but also his immense patience and maturity as the leader of an offense. One of the stereotypes of young point guards is that they tend to take longer to adjust to the NBA because the position demands leadership and smarts that inexperienced players usually lack. Haliburton has a good chance to be the exception to this rule. As a freshman at Iowa State, Tyrese averaged an astounding 4.5 assist to turnover ratio, and even as his role expanded as a sophomore, he was still able to maintain a very good 2.32 A:T. Surrounded by a weak ISU team, Haliburton scraped together 6.5 APG, and his playmaking potential is why a popular comparison for him is Lonzo Ball. I'll get into why this comparison undercuts Tyrese's ceiling, but solely in terms of passing in transition and in the pick and roll, Lonzo is a very fair parallel to him.
Though he's shot a phenomenal 42.6% from three in his career, including 41.9% on 5.6 attempts per game as a sophomore, analysts consistently criticize Tyrese for his unorthodox shot form. His high percentage on threes and his form form found most of the Lonzo comparisons, though most experts ignore two key factors in Haliburton's shooting: his free throw percentage and the form itself. Comparing Haliburton's FT% to Lonzos' in college, Haliburton shot a very good 82.2% from the line as a sophomore, while Lonzo shot a rough 67.3%. FT% usually indicates well how a player's shooting ability will translate to a higher level of defense and a longer three-point line, and Haliburton's high percentages, compared to Lonzo's poor percentages (if a "big improvement" in your FT% is jumping-up to 56.6% as a point guard, that's a Russia-sized red flag about your game), bode well for him making an adjustment to the pros as a shooter. In addition to his free throw proficiency, Tyrese's shot is not as bad as analysts describe it to be. Yes, he releases the ball low, pushes the ball forward, and looks stiff when he shoots, but he clearly has the confidence to shoot threes (5.6 attempts per game as a sophomore), and in comparison to Lonzo's notoriously atrocious cross-body shot, Tyrese's shot is infinitely more salvageable than Lonzo's. If he slightly raises his release and pushes the ball less, his shot will be fine compared to the three-year rebuild that Lonzo's form underwent.
Continuing to counter some of Tyrese's projected negatives, he is criticized for not being a "natural scorer," while NBA nerds prop-up Killian Hayes as the next NBA superstar. Personally, I do not see the hype around Hayes, as his touch from deep is rough, and I do not see his potential to create off of the bounce and in isolation. Hayes is a much more accurate comparison to a less defensively-adept, more offensively capable Lonzo. From the tape of Hayes that I have watched, he appears to be a "big play" passer, excelling in transition and looking for the highlight reel play over the simple pass, the blessing and curse that makes Lonzo who he is. Lonzo's inability to run an effective half-court offense, be effective off-of-the-ball, and score in the half court hold him back from living up to the hype of the number two overall pick, and I see similar flaws in Hayes' game. Though Hayes' ceiling as a scorer, especially in the half-court, is higher than Lonzo's is, I see his defensive potential, especially on the ball, to be significantly lower than Lonzo's All-Defensive team caliber defense.
(Side note - Yes, I said that I tend to love tall PGs who can playmake, and Hayes fits that description, but I never said that he will be a bad player. I simply want to recognize the excessive amount of hype behind him)
Pivoting back to the original topic of the above paragraph, Haliburton's scoring, I believe that draft sites and analysts should archetype him as Spencer Dinwiddie, not Hayes. While Tyrese would need to make achievable improvements in his shot form to reach his potential on offense, his ability to create for himself is widely underrated. I am not trying to say that he is Russell Westbrook as a slasher, but he is far from Lonzo's ineptitudes in the half-court, as at the bare minimum, Haliburton is efficient. With a stellar 64.5% true shooting percentage for his career, including 63.1% as a sophomore, Tyrese efficiently scores with open threes and drives to the basket. While I do not have access to Haliburton's shot volume by spot on the court, based-off of his stellar advanced percentages and film, he does not appear to take many inefficient mid-rangers, another aspect of his maturity. He instead uses his length and his fluidity in movement to drive towards the rim with consistency. If he can put on some weight (he's a slim 185 lbs. for his tall frame), he will be able to much more consistently finish over NBA defenders. Though Tyrese isn't a natural iso scorer, his film suggests that he is far from Lonzo Ball in iso situations, and closer to Spencer Dinwiddie. I think very highly of Spencer after he was nearly an all-star for leading an okay Nets team to a playoff berth, so I do not believe that Tyrese has the 23+ PPG ceiling that Spencer has. However, I think that 20-21 PPG is far from out of the question for Tyrese. Similar concers were raised before the draft for another tall PG in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has proven to be a 20+ PPG scorer in just his second year.
The Shai comparison is perhaps the most accurate, as Shai came into the league as a "swiss army knife," not elite in a specific area, but good to very good in many areas. While Tyrese's solid rebounding for his size at 5.9 per game as a sophomore and his vast defensive potential and proven ability (3.2 stocks (steals plus blocks) as a sophomore) give him that "jack of all trades" vibe, I believe that his film and overall game indicate a much higher ceiling than others project. Tyrese's is an elite ball-handler, which, with his smarts with the ball, aid not only his playmaking, but his ability to score as well. His impressive performance at the FIBA-U19 tournament led his draft rise, and while his scoring at 7.9 PPG does not blow anyone away, his 6:1 A:T ratio, and his tournament-leading 6.9 APG, turns heads. While his PPG average does not help my case that Tyrese will be a quality scorer in the pros, he netted an uber-efficient 21 (88.8% from the field) in one of the seven games that he played in, and shot an unbelievable 68.8% from the field and 55.6% from beyond the arc for the entire tournament. While these numbers will obviously not hold for his career, Tyrese proved that he can be efficient against elite competition, a contrast from Lonzo, and fit into whichever role he needs to alongside elite teammates to win. Just because he didn't score in volume doesn't mean that he showed an inability to score, but he instead displayed the maturity to refrain from forcing his scoring for the scouts and play the role that team need to win (which they did).
Overall, Tyrese projects to be a high-floor player with elite playmaking skills, ball-handling, smarts, and great utilization of his size. He also projects to be a fairly high-ceiling guy, the over-looked aspect of his scouting report, with solid scoring ability, good potential as a shooter from deep, and a frame that, with added strength, could develop him into not only a much better finisher at the rim, but also an elite on-ball defender and disruptor in the passing lanes. These skills are what project Tyrese higher than Wiseman or Avdija on my board, and why I have him as the fourth best player available in this year's draft behind Melo, Edwards, and Okungwu (in that order). To briefly overview why I rank Tyrese over these guys, I see Wiseman as Hassan Whiteside 2.0. He is an athletic big man who grabs plenty of boards and blocks some shots, but doesn't contribute much in terms of winning. Wiseman has a higher offensive ceiling than Whiteside if he is willing to run more PnRs, and he is a more talented scorer in the low post, but Wiseman's lack of motor scares me the most. If a raw prospect at a position where he needs to work on an outside shot to maximize his effectiveness in the NBA doesn't have a good work ethic, he will likely flop, or at least underperform his projections. For Avdija, his inefficient 4 PPG (10 PPG per 36) and inability to gain a starting spot over Quincy Acy's even less efficient 4.8 PPG does not blow anyone away, and his film does not exhibit to me the playmaking and shooting potential that founds his draft stock. After the NBA collectively under-projected Luka, teams are forcing a high ceiling onto the first tall, European forward whom they see. Similarly to Dragan Bender after Kristaps was drafted, or Bruno "Brazillian KD" Caboclo, Deni is an okay prospect whose expectations vastly, and unfairly, outweigh his actual talent.
Shifting back to Haliburton, I hope that he is drafted to a team that lets him run the offense and surrounds him with another elite scorer, as he could become a fantastic second option next to a Bradley Beal or Devin Booker-type player. I wish Tyrese luck wherever he goes, whether it be as the complement to Derrick Rose, a fantastic mentor both on and off of the court, in Detroit at seven, or as the Cavs' 19th young PG at five.
(Side note - Congrats to the namesake of my account, D.J. Chark for getting married and expecting a child! Big moves both on an off of the field)
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