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Evidence and Why the Sketch Changed
- the crime scene is almost the size of a football field
- LE will release more video “when [they] think there will be value”
- the killer may work/live/visit Delphi on a “regular basis” and “may even know the girls or their families” Abby’s mom even agrees that there is good chance that they may know him or his family if he is local
- Carter thinks the killer lives with someone who knows what he did
- Carter says, “We have either interviewed him or we have heard of him”
- Carter seems to slip up and tell us that they started changing direction in the investigation 1.5 years in.
What we know about possible evidence
Carter has said they know the “before” and “after” of the crime . I think he is referring to BG’s whereabouts and movements that day. This includes the two witnesses seeing him getting on the trail via the Freedom Bridge (16 yr old girl) and exiting also via the Freedom Bridge (the male in the “arguing couple”) . Also, we know that someone reported a vehicle parked in the abandoned CPS building lot on February 13 between 1-5pm . Super interesting that the car has not been mentioned since. Does this mean they got the tip they needed? This October 2019 article certainly implies it. “Riley said some tips have been about a car found abandoned near the trails on the day the girls went missing. On Thursday, he said he could not give us any details about what information investigators have on it.” 
We also know from Robert Ives that the crime scene had “2-3 signatures,” could be described as “odd,” and there was “a lot of physical evidence,” but not what “people imagine, or people think” . Now, this is obviously open to interpretation, but I don’t really think we have anything solid to speculate on outlandish things. We do know that they have some DNA and a partial fingerprint . The unusual evidence could include clothes or a cigarette butt near the scene .
I want to go back to the DNA. Since genetic genealogy hasn’t been attempted and no one has been definitively ruled out, I think we can conclude that the DNA is either partial or contaminated. A sample containing a mixture of 3 or more people, for example, makes it impossible to deconvolute an individual’s DNA profile. The DNA could be degraded, especially if it came from an object that was in water. If it is touch DNA, that is known to have an issue with false positives due to contamination.
I think LE can rule some people out with this partial DNA profile, but they cannot rule anyone in to such an extent that can demonstrate probable cause. That’s why they need someone to come forward, to obtain enough circumstantial evidence to investigate this individual further.
(Recommend reading this for further info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forensic_DNA_analysis)
What we know about the suspect
This brings me back to the suspect. Why did the sketch change? I think they were never sure about the first witnesses, which is why it took 5 months to release the old BG guy sketch. If what we know about the witnesses is true, they never saw the lower part of his face . The sketch was biased because of the video, since the artist(s) had to fill in the blanks. When asked how the sketch was developed on July 17, 2017, Riley said, “I can tell you that it came from the investigators itself, from officers looking into things, to tips and leads that have come in, that people have come forward, we got information from there, and the composite was put together with that information.”  Someone had to reconcile the eyewitness descriptions with what officers saw in the video, and I think they saw an older guy. I used to see that too, until the new sketch came out… since then I haven’t been able to see anything other than a young BG. Think of it like an optical illusion tricks the mind— do you see the rabbit or duck in this picture?
I think the young BG sketch released on April 2019 was of a guy in the general area who they couldn’t connect to the crime directly early in the investigation, until they received further information that led them to believe it was in fact connected. “Riley said after reviewing many tips, investigators determined he was able to get around quickly on the day the girls were killed, and seemed to know the area.”  Maybe the youth of the suspect became apparent? They somehow decided that the witness responsible for young BG sketch is the most credible one at some point in the investigation, perhaps mid-2018.
On May 2019, Riley said "Somebody may have already interviewed him," said Riley. "I'm not going to say they have or have not, but there's a possibility that has happened. The person apparently gave the investigating officers the information they were looking for. We have to try to go back and check on the information that we have received.” This is echoed by Tobe in an April 2020 interview . This means that they were onto something early on, perhaps a younger suspect that may have been interviewed? Why can’t they interview him again? Maybe they have no probable cause.
LE is obviously telling the world that this is a local guy, even known in community. They even tried to provoke a reaction by calling him a coward. This tells me that they are truly reaching and really need a family member to speak up about this. Sadly, I think this means only with this type of information can they make the other evidence work backwards to incriminate this individual.
 https://www.downthehillpodcast.com/ Episode 6 - comments by Carter
https://www.downthehillpodcast.com/ Episode 5
 Police scanner audio. Files and transcripts are available at https://www.websleuths.com/forums/threads/liberty-german-and-abigail-williams-scanner-thread.333467/page-11
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