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Getting the Blue Jays to 89 wins in 2020 using Fangraphs projections
- The Blue Jays payroll, according to RosterResource stands at $70,452,571. The luxury tax threshold stands at who gives a shit, because we're literally never gonna come close to it. I'll be operating under the assumption that we have the same payroll as opening day last season (around $115 million), so needless to say, we have plenty of money to play with.
- The trade market is unpredictable. I won't be predicting any trades and will be strictly focusing on adding value to this team through free agency.
- I'll be using Fangraph projections for players next season for both our core of players and upcoming free agents.
- I'll be using the MLBTradeRumors Top Free Agents with Predictions article to estimate the salary and years for the free agents I add. Tim Dierkes takes a great empirical approach to these predictions, and even if the destinations of the free agents proves to be inaccurate, the value of the contracts they get are incredibly close more often than not.
- This is entirely for fun, came to pass due to sheer boredom at work, and supposed to be taken lightly. Please keep that in mind before hitting the submit button on a comment that is supposed to be critical on the offseason moves (i.e. why would Anthony RenColeburg ever come to Toronto!?!?!!?!?)
CDanny Jansen and Reese McGuire
2020 Proj WAR: 3.7 fWAR, combined
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000), each
I'm struggling to think of a catching tandem that could provinde more surplus value for any team given their cost. Jansen made great leaps defensively being nominated for a Gold Glove, but taking a step back offensively. Look for him to rebound to a respectable offensive level.
McGuire was the opposite. Known through the scouts as a defense first catcher, he's proven he can hit the majors, in a small sample size.
Either way, given the cost and the production they could provide, this one of the best catching tandems in the majors.
2020 Proj WAR: 2.4 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
Keith Law HATES him. Click here to learn how Cavan Biggio put up a .364 OBP and 2.4 WAR in 100 games in his rookie season. Biggio will look to repeat, if not exceed, the value he provided in 2019 where he was tremendous at getting on base for Guerrero and Gurriel. You've hopefully got your table setter swiss army guy in Biggio for the next 6 years atleast.
You may be asking yourself, Cavan Biggio at 1st? What gives? He seemed to handle himself fine at 2B, and yes he did. However, I actually think Cavan has the traditional 1B tools that you see (lefty, high OBP, good power etc.), plus I legitimately think he could be a tremendous 1B given his raw tools. It's not like he'd be a strict 1B either. He's played his fair share of other positions in the minors. I think you shift Biggio around the right side of the infield, and maybe even some OF. This is also to make room for our next free agent signing.....
2020 Proj WAR: 2.8 fWAR
Salary: $10M (Projected at 2 years/$20M)
Last time we signed a big bodied in his 30's slugger who used to play for the Kansas City Royals, it turned out not so wonderfully. The difference time time around? Moustakas isn't strictly a DH and can actually play defense. Which leads me to my next point. You may be asking yourself, hey, isn't Moustakas a 3B? Well, yes. Actually, also no. Moustakas got in 47 games at 2B for the Brewers last season and graded out average. The idea here would be that Moustakas would move around the infield and DH. Play some 2B, play some 1B while Cavan plays 2B, play some 3B when Guerrero DH's etc. and DH himself some.
The real selling point is his bat and the surplus value he'd provide relative to the cost. I'll take 2.8 WAR for $10M any year, and while the bat is not elite by any means, Moustakas has been a model of consistency since 2015, posting a 114 OPS+. The appeal here is that he puts the ball in play, doesn't strikeout much, and the hitting environment for lefties in the AL East (Yankee Std., Camden Yards) could give him even more of a boost. A notorious free swinger, he even boosted his BB% this season to a career high. Adding Moustakas to the lineup will just make it that much deeper.
2020 Proj WAR: 3.3 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
Bo's .311 batting average is unlikely to stick given his .368 BABIP (which actually, isn't that outrageous given his speed and ability to put the ball in play) and his .260 ISO is almost assuredly going to come down, but that doesn't mean Bo doesn't have a chance to be a Top 10 shortstop in the league next season. In fact, that's my bold prediction for next season. A full season of 142 OPS+ is unlikely, but 115-120 OPS+ with average defense at short and plus baserunning as a baseline is still a very, very good player to have. You stick with Bo, because he knows.
3BVladimir Guerrero Jr.
2020 Proj WAR: 3.8 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
Anybody else think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a bust? How come he immediately didn't come into the league and hit .300 with 30 bombs? Well, even despite his underwhelming season, he's still projected to put up a 127 wRC+ next season because he's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
We saw flashes where Guerrero would put up a .330/.440/.600 slashline over the course of 75 plate appearences. It's just a matter finding that during a whole season. If his offseason instagram videos are any indication, he's taking his conditioning incredibly seriously and this will surely translate to a Gold Glove at 3B next season (but I'll take average defense).
OF(This is gonna be gross, so buckle in)
Randal Grichuk, RF
2020 Proj WAR: 1.8 fWAR
Keep Handsome Randal in RF, and hope he's closer to 2018 Grichuk where he posted 2.1 fWAR compared to 2019 where he posted 0.5. I find it hard to believe that a 28 year-old would regress to his true talent level so young, especially a large set of data indicates he's actually much better than he was. There's still a shroud of hope that he could improve his on base given his age, but it's likely going to be something small like .310 during the course of a season. Which honestly, I'll take.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF
2020 Proj WAR: 1.6 fWAR
Staying healthy and consistent in LF will be the key to Gurriel's season. He did fine for his first season in the OF if you look at advanced statistics (-1.5 UZR, -2 DRS), but it is admittedly a very short sample for defense. His bat is loud though, and he posted encouraging increases in his plate discipline from his rookie season, which bodes incredibly well for somebody going into his age 26 season and who got exposed to the MLB relatively late in his career. I like the 1.6 fWAR as a conservative estimate.
Teoscar Hernandez, CF
2020 Proj WAR: 0.4 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
In what I can only describe as the most "Teoscar Hernandez thing possible", Teo actually looked more competant in CF compared to the corners (what the fuck Teo?)
Let's play a game of "Did you know". Did you know:
Teoscar Hernandez before his demotion to AAA: 141 PA, .189/.262/.299, 47 wRC+, 9.2 BB%, 29.8 K%
Teoscar Hernandez after his call up from AAA: 323 PA, .248/.325/.548 126 wRC+, 9.9 BB%, 34.4 K%
In also the most Teoscar Hernandez thing possible, he actually did much better when he struck out more. This man makes no sense, and I'm going to stop using logic to explain him because it's going to result in me having an aneurysm. We should be happy if he's closer to the 2nd statline next season while not playing vomit-inducing CF.
Derek Fisher, 4th OF
2020 Proj WAR: 0.7 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
/TorontoBlueJays public enemy #1. If I could use a metaphor to describe Derek Fisher it would certainly be 'balls to the
In truth, 0.7 fWAR is perfectly serviceable as a 4th OF and its' worth keeping Fisher on the roster to see if he breaks out (we're talking about one of the best performers in the minors the last couple seasons). He has speed, and can actually play a decent enough OF according to advanced metrics.
(Before you think of hitting that enter button, just know that Fisher has been significantly better than Alford in the minors and projects significantly better than him too.)
Other bench depth: Breyvic Valera, Richard Urena, Brandon Drury, Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, Billy McKinney, Jonathan Davis
2020 Proj Total WAR: 2.5 fWAR
SP1. Dallas Keuchel, SP
2020 Proj WAR: 2.7 fWAR
Salary: $13M (Projected at 3 years/$39M)
Hey kids, remember Marcus Stroman? Yeah, he got a ton of groundballs and everyone was sad to see him go. How would you like to get him back? Well you're not going to because life sucks and then you die. Let that be a lesson to you. Instead, you'll get Dallas Keuchel who generated more groundballs and like it.
Keuchel put up a respectable 3.75 ERA in 19 starts for the Braves. Admittedly, the peripherals weren't pretty, but his appraoch to pitching translates well enough to results even if it isnt sexy. On top of that, he's a proven durable starter who's pitched 200 innings 3 times since 2014. He's not an iron man by any means, but he'll give you at least 20 starts, which is more than I can say for most Jays starters this past season. Similar to Moustakas, I love the cost-to-wins ratio here. I'll take 2.7 fWAR at $13M a year for only 3 years. You can't expect a terrible drop off here either since he'll be going into his age 32 season.
2. Kyle Gibson, SP
2020 Proj WAR: 2.9 fWAR
Salary: $9M (Projected at 2 years/$18M)
/TorontoBlueJays: Hey Shatkins, can we stop and get Jake Odorizzi?
Shatkins: No, we have Jake Odorizzi at home
Jake Odorizzi at home: Kyle Gibson
No seriously. The last two seasons, Kyle Gibson has posted better xFIP's than Jake Odorizzi. He also throws hard compared to the rest of our pitchers (then again, so do I), having an avg fb velocity of 93.4 mph. I love the bargain price, and he had a good season as recently as 2018. He has great secondaries (.225 xWOBA against his slider, .268 xWOBA against his changeup) and has pitched at least 150 innings the last 5 of his 6 seasons. Again, the key word is durability. No more Edwin Jackson (please god). Even if this rotation isn't sexy on paper, at the very least, they're proven durable starters who can stay on the field.
3. Chase Anderson, SP
2020 Proj WAR: 0.8 fWAR
Salary: $8.5M w/ team option for 2021
I like the addition, given that it cost literally nothing (sorry Chad Spanberger). Again, durability is key here. Pitched atleast 130 innings his last 5 seasons. Good K-rate, good velo that's been increasing year over year, doesn't walk many, but that homer rate may limit his success, especially in the AL East. I'll gladly take a repeat of his last season.
4. Matt Shoemaker, SP
2020 Proj WAR: 1.4 fWAR
Salary: $3.8M in arbitration (est.)
Shoemaker looked tremendous in a very short sample in 2019 before a freak injury ended his season. He adds a lot of volatility to this rotation given his injury history, but a full season of Shoemaker should produce decent results
5. Ryan Borucki, SP
2020 Proj WAR: 0.9 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
Borucki had a great short stint in 2018 and was primed to start 2019 in the rotation, but elbow trouble caused him to basically have a lost season. Hoping we see him rebound and he can continue his development in the majors to see if he can stick.
6. Trent Thornton, SP
2020 Proj WAR: 1.4 fWAR
Salary: Pre-Arb ($550,000)
Thornton actually had a very successful rookie season under the hood. An 8.7 K/9, and 1.9 fWAR for a rookie in the AL-East is very, very good. He kept his walks in check as well, but the homers bugged him a ton which bogged down his results. He had a great September (albeit paired up with an opener), but it could've been partly attributed to Clay Bucholz. Buck and Pats "verterin presents" 1, sabermetricians 0. We can only hope that he takes step forward and get to the point where Thornton can post a 4.5 ERA over a a full season (while on paper this isn't anything special, this means on average, you can pitch a quality start of 6 innings, 3 ER).
Pitching depth: Anthony Kay, TJ Zeuch, Jacob Waguespack, Julian Merryweather, Sean Reid-Foley, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch
Look for some of these guys to be called up in the eventual case of injury. Most notably, Fangraphs loves Jacob Waguespack enough to give him a 0.7 fWAR projection and Julian "Sasquatch" Merryweather at 0.3 fWAR. This rotation has no true ace, but a lot of good enough mid rotation guys that if things break right, could be good enough to give our offense a winning shot every night.
ResultsAgain, this is incredibly rudimentary on my part and not meant to be anything incredibly analytical. WAR assumes a baseline number of wins if a team is full of 0 WAR players, and the only public number I could find for that baseline was baseball-reference which calculates it at 52. I know me using Fangraphs projections to project players and then using Baseball-References WAR's baseline is incredibly dumb, scientifically speaking, but it's the only publically available data I've got. Remember, Fangraphs WAR is actually incredibly conservative compared to bWAR, so this may turn out alright (i.e. 0.8 fWAR for Vlad vs. 2.1 bWAR for Vlad in 2019). This is simply just to check if every one plays up to projections and stays uninjured, how many expected wins we would have. I'm not gonna go through the hassle of coming up with adding the bullpen wins because bullpens are really volatile year-to-year and constantly changing during the course of the season. Instead, I'll take the bullpen WAR from last season and add it in (2.3)
Here's what the updated lineup would look like:
- Bo Bichette
- Cavan Biggio
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Mike Moustakas
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Randal Grichuk
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Rowdy Tellez
- Danny Jansen
- Dallas Keuchel
- Kyle Gibson
- Chase Anderson
- Matt Shoemaker
- Ryan Borucki
- Trent Thornton
This teams total fWAR + the bWAR baseline wins would add up to....
Opening day payroll for this team: ~$102M, not including extra reliever signings.
Congrats. Book October off for the parade.
A simple but effective boost rework (that also panders to Ludia’s greed)
Here’s how it works: at the end of each season, boosts are reset. All your creatures are stripped of boosts (with no refund) and any unspent boosts are converted to gold to a rate of 500 gold apiece. Boost cost is now based on the Fibonacci sequence, in accordance with the following table:
So, that”s the idea. What do you think?